While no one who is a part of it will dare admit it,
the media loves death, destruction, and mayhem for one simple reason:
it sells. When disaster, whether man-made or natural, strikes, the
media is quick to rush to press dramatic videos, graphic pictures,
and harrowing accounts of the disaster. The media also loves hype,
rushing to press any scandal (real, imagined, or exaggerated) that it
can dig up and, at an increasingly alarming rate, regardless of
whether facts are confirmed or not.
Taking in the above, it is especially ironic that the
mainstream media is completely ignoring potential disasters that
could, at worst case scenario according to a Congressional report,
kill 90% of the American population within a year of it striking.
What are these potential killers? Solar superstorms or
an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.
To make matters worse, these are catastrophes that need
not happen. Sure, the Sun could erupt at any time or some rogue
nation could launch a nuclear weapon into orbit and detonate it over
the United States at the push of a button, but we need not be
vulnerable. The trouble is, without the media doing its duty to bring
this threat to the public's attention, the public will remain
oblivious and therefore not demand action that has to be taken.
But before we can examine the problem, we have to get
to its roots.
The history of electricity goes back over 5,000 years
to the time of predynastic Egypt, which was before roughly 3100 BC.
It was in Egypt that electricity was discovered in the form of
catfish that would shock anyone who touched them. In fact, the name
Narmer (the pharaoh who unified Egypt) meant 'angry catfish' in the
Ancient Egyptian language. The first studies of electricity would not
be conducted until the 600s BC by Thales of Miletus and were based
off of static electricity, as were all future studies until the
1700s.
In 1752, Benjamin Franklin proved that lightning was
electricity by way of his famous kite experiment. Fate must have had
greater things planned for Franklin because, shortly thereafter, two
other scientists tried to replicate his experiment and both were
electrocuted and killed. The Voltaic Pile of 1800 was the first
modern battery and used alternating layers of copper and zinc to
store energy but the Pile had no practical use at the time. In 1821,
the first electric motor was developed but, like the Pile of two
decades earlier, had no practical use.
The idea of sending messages across long distances by
electricity was first proposed in the early 1800s but it would not be
until Samuel Morse's invention of the telegraph in 1837 that this
idea was successfully put into practice. After Morse, the proverbial
floodgate opened as telegraph lines quickly started to stretch across
the country, making instantaneous long range communication possible
for the first time in history. In 1858, the first transatlantic cable
connecting the United States to England was laid on the floor of the
Atlantic.
The world had just got a whole lot smaller but the
vulnerability of this almost magical technology was soon to be laid
bare for all to see.
It is now an undisputed fact that solar storms can have
consequences on Earth. The waves of supercharged atoms and radiation
blasting forth from the Sun play havoc with the Earth's upper
atmosphere. The visual confirmation of this chaos: the Northern
Lights. Solar storms can also play havoc with electrical technology,
as the world found out in 1859.
Known as the Carrington Event after astronomer Richard
Carrington, who observed it as it happened, this was the strongest
solar storm ever recorded. Aurora were sighted in Hawaii, Central
America, and sub-Saharan Africa. The aurora were so bright that
newspapers could be read with ease by their light alone.
Unfortunately, the telegraph system took a beating. Lines started
smoking and some even caught fire. Receivers started shocking their
operators and emitting sparks. The receivers not destroyed by the
energy burst were able to send messages without their batteries and
even if the lines they were connected to were destroyed, giving the
world a brief glimpse of the future that was wireless communication.
Another casualty: the transatlantic cable.
Richard Carrington and his drawing of the solar superstorm producing sunspot.
The problem with solar superstorms is that they do not
harm a living thing. There could have been hundreds of storms of
Carrington magnitude or even stronger throughout Earth's history but,
until we developed electronic technology, we had no way of knowing
that they even existed. Now, having witnessed the Carrington event,
it became not unreasonable to question if technological progress was
always a good thing.
There is a paradox to the advancement of civilization
in that, the more advanced a culture is, the easier it can be to
destroy it. There have been two Dark Ages in Western history: circa
1100BC and 476AD to the start of the Renaissance. In both cases, more
primitive cultures overran more advanced ones, showing that, the more
advanced you get as a people, the harder it is to revert to a simpler
way of life. In 2018, we have clearly become too dependent on
technology and a massive technological failure could easily plunge us
into a third Dark Age.
There's no doubt about it, modern civilization depends
on electronics and, chiefly among them, the computer. If computers
were to fail, imagine what life would be like without transportation,
utilities, communication, and medicine. Basically, life as we know it
ends, leaving only the question of whether civilization itself would
collapse without modern technology.
Before continuing, the issues to be examined next are
purely in theory as I will attempt to present a complete picture of
what could happen, ranging from best to worst case scenarios.
Best case scenario is that the whole idea of modern
technology failing and a resultant collapse of civilization is fear
running out of control. Doubters to the death by solar storm idea
will be quick to point out the panic surrounding the arrival of the
year 2000 and the whole Y2K scare that some predicted would cause
computers all over the world to crash. As we all know, nothing
happened. People taking this stance will point out that modern
electronics have surge protectors and that, while devices may
malfunction while a storm persists, they should return to normal once
the storm subsides. At worst, a device may need to be shut off and
then turned back on to restore normal function.
Worst case scenario is nothing short of Armageddon.
Doomsday theorists are quick to seize on a 2008 Congressional report
that said, in the event that the national power grid collapses, 90%
of Americans could be dead within a year. These people argue that we
are too reliant on computers and technology to adapt to a way of life
without them and that cultures we deem 'primitive' are far more
likely to survive thanks to their lack of reliance on high
technology.
Where is the truth? Probably somewhere in between, but
we will now examine what could happen on a point by point basis.
The power grid. The modern would as we know it relies
on electricity. Unfortunately, it is something that we in First World
take for granted. We can count on walking into a dark room, flipping
a switch, and the light coming on. Unfortunately, our reliance on
electricity goes far deeper than being able to see in the dark.
Computers run all modern utility systems, such as power, water, and
sewer. All forms of modern technology rely on electricity to varying
degrees. Inconvenienced by a power outage of a few hours? Imaging
going over a year without modern conveniences and the necessities
that make our world go round.
For as important as it is, the power grid is, it is
surprisingly vulnerable. The power grid supplies power to over 320
million Americans, plus power to thousands of businesses, hospitals,
utility systems, and so on. The national power grid is completely
interconnected, which is not a good thing because the collapse of
just one sub grid has the potential to collapse the whole thing. How?
If one sub grid collapses, the adjacent sub grids absorb the load,
which they may not be able to withstand. If another sub grid
collapses, an even larger load will have to be absorbed by adjacent
grids. In theory, sub grids could fall like toppling dominoes until
the whole country goes dark.
The heart of the national power grid are over 2100 high
voltage transformers, which can transmit over 345,000 volts. These
are house-sized (or larger) monsters and replacing just one of them
could take up to three years as parts are not readily available.
According to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), the failure of
just 10% of these could collapse the entire national power grid,
leading to a truly nightmarish, apocalyptic scenario.
A high voltage transformer.
Locations.
According to a National Defense University report,
which is funded by the Department of Defense (DOD), a national power
outage could cause society to come apart at the seams, and in short
order, too. First of all, if the power grid fails, the supply chain
that provides food, fuel, power, and other supplies to people all
over the country will come to a grinding halt. In warm climates, all
the cold food could spoil in a matter of hours once refrigeration
systems fail. According to the study, society will quickly unravel as
mass looting will take place, with all stores across the nation being
empty in as little as 3 days. Once the stores are empty, mass looting
of homes is predicted, which could lead to a mass desertion of law
enforcement and military personnel from their posts as they leave to
protect their own homes and families.
As bad as the above scenario is, things could get far
worse. The worst case scenario involves the nation's nuclear power
plants. Nuclear power plants require a continual cycle of water being
pumped through the reactors to keep them cool in much the same matter
as car engines require a continual pumping of water through their
coolant systems to keep them at a safe operating temperature. If
these pumps, powered by electricity fail, the water in the nuclear
power plants will come to a halt and start boiling away into steam as
the nuclear reactions, which generate an enormous amount of heat,
will continue without interruption. In time, the water will be all
gone and the fuel rods will melt through the bottom of the reactor,
triggering a meltdown. This is exactly what happened at Fukishima in
2011 and is what could happen to the 61 nuclear power plants
currently operating in the United States. In theory, the whole
country (and eventually the world thanks to winds aloft and ocean
currents) will be bathed in radioactive nuclear fallout.
Nuclear power plants.
If a bath of radioactive fallout was not bad enough,
there would be another dire threat created by the failure of
sanitation-essential utilities. With the supply of fresh water gone
dry and waste disposal systems come to a halt. Disease is sure to run
rampant in densely populated urban and suburban areas. The modern
city owes its existence to modern sanitation (it is no coincidence
that, before the industrial era, the largest cities always topped out
at around a population of 1 million people) and without it, all of
the waste you can imagine will go nowhere. Sewage will stay and
fester as the supply of fresh water will no longer be functional to
wash it away and treat it to remove contaminants. Trash collection
will also come to a halt and cities will become giant garbage dumps,
inviting in rats and other vermin. Adding to the misery will be that,
with heating and cooling systems offline, people not killed by
radiation or disease will fry in the summer and freeze in the winter.
For anyone wanting to run to the countryside to escape
at least the filth of the cities, that may not be possible as modern
transportation is almost 100% reliant on computers. Cars, planes, and
trains are almost completely reliant on computers. Some new cars even
have their steering, braking, and shifting controlled by a computer.
The key question is how will these computer chips that control modern
methods of transport be impacted by a solar superstorm or EMP.
In 2004, a study took place that tested 37 motor
vehicles in conditions simulating a solar superstorm. The findings
were encouraging in that none of the cars suffered damage if they
were off when the simulated superstorm struck. Additionally, only 10%
of the cars experienced crippling damage when on. Problem: imagine
what traffic conditions in major cities would be like if just 10% of
the cars stopped dead in the road. Anyone who has ever driven in a
major city knows that a 2 car fender bender (with the cars then
driven to the side of the road) can create total gridlock. On top of
that, 2018's cars are far more dependent on computers than 2004's.
Additionally, since the 2004 study, no large scale studies on this
problem have been done.
Electronic car controls.
So, will your car run if a solar superstorm or EMP were
to strike? Short answer, it's hard to tell as 2018 cars are far more
reliant on computers than 2004 models. The good news is that there
can be educated guesses. Computer controlled electronic fuel
injection was introduced throughout the 1980s and cars from before
then that were still 100% mechanically controlled and fed through a
carburetor should be fine. And remember, even 90% of fuel injected
2004 models were fine. Going for cars is that their bodies act as
partial Faraday Cages, which can shield cars' vital electronic
components from a blast of radiation. The problem is that, even if
the cars themselves run, gas pumps are now computer controlled, which
means that, even if the car runs, once the fuel runs out, it may be
impossible to refuel them.
Much is up in the air (sorry) when it comes to how a
solar superstorm or EMP will impact planes. Operation Starfish Prime
(more later) took place in 1962 and detonated a 1.4 megaton H-bomb
250 miles up in the atmosphere. The explosion proposed an EMP pulse
but the planes in the are experienced no ill effects other than a
loss in altitude thanks to changes in atmospheric pressure. Unlike
today's planes, planes were completely mechanically controlled, which
begs the question: how will planes of 2018 fare in such a situation?
Will planes fall from the sky? Short answer, maybe the
computerized ones. If engines and/or controls were to fail, planes
could drop like stones. Middle age planes with limited
computerization but mechanical controls to wing and tail flaps will
be endangered, but the hope would be that they could be flown by
skilled pilots as gliders. The real problem: where to find a spot to
a glided landing. Old purely mechanical planes? They survived
Starfish Prime without a problem and should be fine. The key problem:
today's computer chip electronics are far more vulnerable than the
vacuum tubes of the past. Like cars, planes have their metal bodies
going for them, as evidenced by planes surviving lightning strikes
regularly.
Tube vs. chip.
Now the crux of the issue: how will the computers that
control our modern way of life fare in a solar superstorm or EMP?
The
Air Force has long been looking for ways to disrupt enemies
electronics. The culmination of this research: the
Counter-electronics
High-powered
Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP). While they do not shower
targets with radiation, the microwaves they do use cause damage in
much the same way a burst of radiation would: namely heating them up
and causing them to short circuit. So far, CHAMP tests have been
devastating on electronics. All of the electronics in targeted
buildings were destroyed. In fact, in the first test, the cameras
observing the test also got fried as they were not enclosed in
Faraday cages.
A CHAMP missile.
As
all modern methods of communication are controlled to varying degrees
by electronics, it's also vital to examine how modern communication
would be impacted by a solar superstorm or EMP. Phone lines may be
fried as were telegraph lines in 1859. Ironically, cell phones,
because of their size, may actually be immune to these effects but if
the cell towers are fried, what good are they? The good news is that
if the towers aren't fried, solar phone chargers can be bought
cheaply.
A
more reliable alternative to phones are battery-powered two-way
radios, which should be completely immune to ill effects if they are
off at the time of the burst. Even if on, tests have shown that such
radios have varying ranges of immunities to radiation.
Professional-grade models are virtually radiation proof. The good
news is that radios with 50 mile ranges can be bought rather cheaply
as can batteries and solar-powered battery chargers.
Computers,
on the other hand, are almost assured to be toast. The CHAMP tests
fried every computer in the targeted buildings. The only consolation
is that CHAMP used a highly-focused beam of microwaves while a solar
superstorm or EMP would, in all probably, produce a more diffuse
shower of radiation. Still, though, I wouldn't put much faith in my
computer.
One
source of electricity, though, may be virtually immune from a solar
superstorm or EMP: solar power systems, provided that they are not
plugged into the grid. Why? Solar power systems use power inverters,
changing the DC current they initially generate into AC, which is
then used to power the home. Power inverters use fuses, which will
blow in the case of a power surge, which would be caused by a burst
of radiation, in order to protect the system. The basic scenario: a
burst of radiation hits and the fuse blows. To get the system running
again, all one would have to do was put in a new fuse and switch the
system back on. The deep charge batteries used to store the
sun-generated power should be immune from radiation bursts, too. Even
better news, anything in the house not controlled by a computer, even
if it is plugged in at the time of the burst, should be fine as the
system will be shut down.
A
solar superstorm, a purely natural event, could cause all of the
above. Unfortunately, so can humans.
As
already mentioned, Operation Starfish Prime detonated a 1.4 megaton
H-bomb roughly 250 miles above Earth's surface. The goal of the test
was to see whether high altitude Soviet nuclear tests could interfere
with US ICBMs. For comparison, the Starfish Prime bomb was roughly
100 times more powerful than the A-bomb that leveled Hiroshima.
Unlike
conventional bombs, nuclear explosions release not only kinetic
energy, but gamma rays, x-rays, and supercharged subatomic particles.
The same thing would happen in a solar superstorm. The initial flare
would release massive amounts of X and gamma rays. The following
coronal mass ejection would send a wave of slower moving subatomic
particles heading for Earth, a devastating 1-2 punch for our
civilization.
The
immediate effects of Starfish Prime were spectacular. The blast
created artificial aurora and illuminated the skies in Hawaii,
hundreds of miles away. Street lights were blown out in Honolulu.
There were also widespread radio blackouts and disruptions to
telephone service, which was all land line at the time.
Starfish Prime pictures.
The
blast also had more unexpected, longer lasting effects. Not all of
the supercharged subatomic particles rained to Earth. Some remained
in orbit and created an artificial radiation belt around the Earth
that persisted for several months. This massive belt of radiation was
responsible for the failure of 6 satellites. While 6 may not seem
like a large number, one must remember that there were not that many
satellites in orbit back in 1962. Among the casualties was the famous
Telestar 1, the world's first telecommunications satellite
(and the inspiration for a #1 hit song of the same name). Scientists
had predicted the Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP), but were surprised by
its strength.
Today,
the science of EMPS is well understood by scientists themselves and
the military. Provided that t has the means to get a nuke into orbit,
creating an EMP would be the ideal way for a weaker nation to attack
a stronger one. North Korea has nukes already and is working on ICBMs
and Iran is close to getting a Nuke. In addition, both nations are
hostile to the United States and have leadership that could, at best,
be described as unstable.
North
Korea is run by Kim Jong Un, third generational ruler of the
communist nation, often referred to as 'The Hermit Kingdom' thanks to
its isolation from the outside world. Kim grew up isolated from the
outside world and, by looking at some of his past rhetoric, reality.
He had an uncle killed and fed to dogs, his half brother poisoned at
an airport, and a general shot for falling asleep in a meeting.
However, relations between the United States and North Korea may be
thawing. In June, 2018, Kim met with President Trump and agreed to
stop the development of nuclear weapons and dismantle weapon building
facilities. In return, the United States agreed to halt military
exercises in the area. As of this writing, a second meeting between
Trump and Kim is in the works. On top of that, Kim has meet with the
leaders of South Korea several times since the start of 2018 and it
appears that a peace treaty officially ending the Korean War (the war
ended in 1953 with a cease fire, not a peace treaty) could be in the
works. We and the rest of the world can only hope that relations
between the United States and South Korea continue to thaw with North
Korea.
Not
looking so optimistic is the situation with Iran. Officially, Iran is
only developing nuclear technology for power generation but the words
coming from the Iranian leadership draw this claim into question.
Iran has frequently referred to the United States as 'the Great
Satan' and has repeatedly wished 'death to America.' Additionally,
Iranian leadership has often called for Israel to be 'wiped off the
map.' Making matters worse, unlike Kim who, by all accounts, is
ultimately concerned with his own self preservation, that attitude is
not shared by the clerics who ultimately run Iran. There are two
sects of Islam: Sunni and Shiite. The disagreement came over who
should be the ultimate religious leader. Shiite Muslims believe that
only descendents of the Prophet Muhammad should be the leader.
According to legend, the 12th Imam (successor to Muhammad)
disappeared down a well in the 10th century, promising to
return one day. Shiite Muslims believe that he will return at the
time of Judgment to lead an army of the righteous (the Shiites) over
the infidels (everyone else) and then set up a just kingdom on Earth.
This time of tribulation will be brought about by increasing strife
on Earth and radical Shiites believe that the return of the 12th
Imam can be hastened by creating Earthly chaos. These are the clerics
who run Iran, not the sort of people you want to have a nuclear bomb.
Yes,
the threat from solar superstorms and EMP attacks is very real, but
we need not be vulnerable as there are ways we can harden our power
grid. For all that it does, the power grid is extremely vulnerable.
Unshielded electronic equipment itself is vulnerable and the virtual
complete computerization of our infrastructure only makes matters
worse. If either a solar superstorm or EMP attack were to happen, the
entire grid itself could collapse and the nightmarish scenarios
outlined above could become reality.
Hardening
the grid will be expensive but, knowing the consequences of not doing
so, how can we not spend the money? According to the 2008
Congressional EMP Report, the cost of completely hardening our power
grid could run up to $20 billion. While that seems like a lot, that
pales in comparison to the cost of completely recovering from either
such event (assuming that it was even possible). According to Lloyd's
of London, complete recovery from a solar superstorm or EMP could st
up to $2.5 trillion and take anywhere from 4-10 years. $20 billion or
$2.5 trillion? That's a no-brainer. Again, according to the
Congressional report, a complete hardening of the grid could take 3-5
years and insulating the high voltage transformers alone could cost
$2 billion.
The
cost if we don't, though, is staggering. According to the
Congressional report, up to 90% of Americans could be dead within a
year of the storm or EMP. Causes of death would include starvation,
excessive heat/cold, disease, violence via looting, and radioactive
fallout. Who survives? The more rural you are, the better as low
population density makes disease less likely. With farming common in
rural areas, these people will have the know-how to survive off the
land and many in rural areas also rely on wells for water. Also,
trees can be cut down for heat and the sheer remoteness makes the
probability of roving bands of raiding less likely.
So,
what is the government doing? Not much. Shortly after 9/11, the
Congressional EMP Commission was created. 7 years later, it issued
its dire report but continued for another 9 years before being
disbanded in 2017. However, in December, 2017, President Trump
issued his national security strategy, which included hardening the
grid, a first.
How
would we go about hardening the grid? First, the high voltage
transformers are a must, they get first priority and need to be
enclosed in Faraday cages. Secondly, communications must be
protected. This would mean stronger surge protectors. Additionally,
copper communications cables which conduct electromagnetic
radiation), need to be replaced with fiber optics. Power stations
would need to be hardened by sealing all openings with conductive
gaskets that would shield the valuable electronics inside from a
radiation surge. Yes, doing this could cost $20 billion and take 5
years to complete but, knowing the consequences, how can't we do
this? The good news is that it need not be this expensive. According
to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, building these protections
into new infrastructure at the time of construction would only add
about 1% to the total cost. In contrast, retrofitting would be about
10 times more expensive. It is all of this retrofitting that could
drive the cost to $20 billion.
Okay,
so where do we get the money? According to Citizens Against
Government Waste (.org), we could save $120 billion over 5 years by
cutting the following:
1.
The Rural Utilities Service ($48 billion over 5 years). Initially
created as part of the New Deal, this was meant to ensure that people
in rural areas had access to electricity and running water, which was
good. According to a government report in 1980, by that point, over
98% of rural residents had electricity and over 95% running water
vial pipelines or wells. What is the current priority? Internet
access! While many 30-somethings and younger would beg to disagree,
Internet is not a necessity to life. This is especially true in the
time of smartphones, which can get Internet anywhere via satellite.
2.
Eliminate Community Development Block Grants ($15 billion). These are
largely blank checks handed to major cities with the intent that they
be used to revitalize inner cities. There is virtually no oversight
or accountability.
3.
Sell excess government land and stop buying more ($18 billion). The
Federal Government owns a lot of land, especially West of the
Mississippi. Why does it need to and why is it continuing to buy up
more? I'm sure ranchers would line up to buy major tracts.
4.
Kill the Davis-Bacon Act ($6 billion). Another New Deal Dinosaur,
this law requires that private sector workers doing government
contract work be paid the prevailing union wage for that profession
in that locality. Union workers typically make 15% more (give or
take), than private sector workers.
5.
Audit Medicare Payouts ($21 billion). With millions of people to
keep track of, it's no surprise that some Medicare recipients' deaths
go unrecorded, and thus the payments continue. According to Citizens,
there are currently over 4,000 people over age 110 living in the
United States. To date, only a few dozen people in the world have
lived that long. Sure, this will cost money, but the net should be a
large savings.
6.Eliminate
sugar and milk subsidies ($12 billion). Unbeknownst to many, the
sugar and milk industry is not a free market. While too complicated
to detail here, these industries, through laws passed by Congress,
get much government manipulation including government set prices and
production quotas. Leftover products at the end of the year? No
worries, the government will buy them.
That's
$120 billion over 5 years. Even in just one year, that's enough to
harden the grid.
Want
some big, big money real fast to cover and cost overruns? How about
eliminate the approximately $50 billion we doll out, largely no
strings attached, in foreign aid every year. The $2 billion that
President Trump cut off from Pakistan earlier this year for not doing
enough to fight terrorism would in itself cover our high voltage
transformers.
Yes,
thinking and talking about it is better than burying one's proverbial
head in the sand, but we need action, not more talk. The studies have
been done and the findings were dire, which means that it's time to
take action.
We
need a plan, so what should it include?
1.
We need to develop a response plan in the case of a superstorm or
EMP. In the case of an EMP, this should include military retaliation.
2.
Conduct a national vulnerability assessment
3.
Protect parts of the infrastructure vital to recovery from such an
event (turbines, generators, transformers, and communications
networks)
4.
Completely harden our military assets
5.
Equip all new critical infrastructure with superstorm/EMP protection
as it is constructed
6.
Develop as perfect an ICBM defense as possible in the case of an
EMP. Remember CHAMP missiles?
Long
story short: we know that we have a problem and we know exactly what
it is. We've studied solutions and know what they are. Now we just
need to act. The good news is that we all can take part in the
solution by contacting to our leaders. If we write enough or even
speak to them if we get a chance, they will eventually have to listen
if we keep bringing up this problem. With the dire consequences
already known if we fail to act, this should be a truly bipartisan
effort in the politically polarized year of 2018.
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